According to an official statement by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, the Kremlin has deployed units of the 101st Missile Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus, armed with the latest medium-range ballistic missiles ‘Oreshnik.’
The deployment of these systems was announced by GUR chief Oleh Ivashchenko. ‘Oreshnik’ is a Russian ballistic missile system (BMS). Key characteristics, according to GUR data:
- Strike range: from 3,000 to 5,500 km.
- Speed: during the terminal phase of flight, warheads are capable of accelerating to hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach 11 (approximately 13,500 km/h).
- Features: high mobility of the system and the potential capability to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (including with a nuclear warhead).
GUR analysts believe that deploying missiles with a range of up to 5,500 km in Belarus makes no tactical sense exclusively for the war against Ukraine. From launch positions in the Homel or Brest regions, the ‘Oreshnik’s’ radius of action theoretically allows it to strike targets across most of Europe.
In addition to the ballistic threat, GUR is recording the transformation of Belarus into an infrastructure appendage for Russian drone attacks. According to Ivashchenko, a network of radio signal repeaters has been deployed on the country’s territory. They serve as ‘navigation beacons’ for kamikaze strike drones such as the Shahed-136. This allows Russian operators to adjust drone routes to bypass Ukrainian electronic warfare systems and use Belarusian airspace as a safe transit zone for striking Ukraine’s critical and civilian infrastructure.
The GUR chief also noted that despite the rapid militarization and deployment of strategic weapons, Ukrainian intelligence is not currently recording the formation of Belarusian army strike groups for a direct ground invasion.
