Greece will likely not transfer its S-300 systems and missiles to Ukraine in the short or medium term. This assessment was shared with Forbes by Greek analyst George Tzogopoulos. Among the main obstacles, the analyst cited Greece’s own defense needs and the deterrence of Turkey, political tensions with Kyiv, and a possible reaction from Russia. However, there has been no official statement from the Greek government announcing a final refusal to transfer these systems. It is worth noting that this topic has been discussed since at least December 2022, when Greek authorities publicly expressed readiness for such a step in exchange for American Patriots.
The discussion concerns two S-300PMU-1 systems and 175 5V55U missiles, which Greece received in the late 1990s — they were originally intended for Cyprus, but the delivery fell through due to a crisis in relations with Turkey. These systems are considered relatively modern and combat-capable: Athens tested them in Crete in 2013 and reportedly allowed the Israeli Air Force to practice strike tactics against them.
One reason for the refusal is the political cooling between Kyiv and Athens. In May, Greek authorities discovered a Ukrainian maritime drone near the island of Lefkada — likely targeting tankers carrying Russian oil. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially apologized to Greece at the time.
An additional reason is Greece’s reluctance to provoke conflict with Russia. Moscow has stated that the transfer of these systems to a third party requires its consent — and Russia will certainly not grant it. Athens, for its part, does not want to worsen its relations with the Kremlin.
The joint Ukrainian-American project to modernize older S-300 missiles is expected to become operational by late 2026, but according to retired U.S. Army Colonel Robert Hamilton, it will produce only hundreds of missiles per year. This is a positive pace, but insufficient to quickly close the air defense gap.
